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The collapse of the ruble: the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation drink champagne and bathe in pennies. The Russian government stamped the ruble from the bank

purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance (they are bought within the framework of the budget rule for the sterilization of extra income from high oil prices), and 9 sickles without purchasing foreign currency in exchange. Torishny serpnya of the Central Bank mav leather working day to buy currency for 16.7 billion krb.

Ale on Friday, 10 sickles, the dollar has risen in price by 1 rub., having risen more than 67 rubles. (Maximum from January 2016), and on Monday, April 13, having continued to beat the anti-record, having already reached the last showings of court prescription - more than 68 rubles. for the dollar. Ale, in the last few days, the fall of the ruble has been affected not only by the possible anti-Russian sanctions on the side of the United States, but also by the growing economic crisis in Turkey, which negatively affects the currencies of all markets, which seem to be developing, among them experts.

On April 10, the Turkish liri entered the US intermediary trade through the US: the currency fell in one day to the dollar by 14% to a historical minimum of 6.47 liri, and over the course of the day it weakened to the dollar by 21%. On April 13, the historical minimum was updated - on Monday the exchange rate of the liri to the dollar reached 6.9.

Video: RBC

Turkish seasoning before sanctions

The weakening of the ruble was swayed due to the number of reasons - anti-Russian sanctions, the inflow of investors from the markets that are developing, on the aphid crises in Turkey and the sheet of the assistant of the President Andriy Bilousov with the tax on the metallurgy of the natal bank “It’s important to say at the link with zim, what kind of influx can be a skin factor is OK, shards of stench can act on the mood of investors in the same world,” it means won.

The situation in the Turechchyni z Kinzya Tizhnya VIZHASUSUSUSed on another plan of Yak Borovannya, the Global Trading of the Vinyi, so the I was the topic of the ANALITIC, the ANALITIA "VTB Kapital", forecasting, and the hijacking of the situation in the center of Uvasovy. on the surge of volatility of the exchange rate, it’s easy to continue repairing the pressure on other currencies markets that are developing.

Those who spend the remaining two days with the ruble are a reaction to the Turkish crisis, which is growing, Kirilo Tremasov, director of the analytical department of Loko-Invest, is suitable. “In Turkey, they are developing behind a catastrophic scenario - to clear up serious problems in the banking sector, to induce foreign exchange control,” - it is blamed. As a result, the ruble, as well as other currencies of the country, which are developing, react negatively to the situation in Turkey, even an expert. Tim is no less, the Russian currency, for one reason, at the same time is traded inadequately cheaply - the Turkish crisis is marked by anti-Russian sanctions.


Currency exchange point near Istanbul, Turechchina. 13 serp 2018 roku (Photo: Murad Sezer / Reuters)

Podії in Turkey cannot but create risks for other currencies of the krai, which are developing - on aphids, the lira falls as well as the Brazilian real, the African rand, the Mexican peso, according to Sergiy Suverov, senior analyst at BCS. On the other hand, the ruble is falling more actively in the situation in Turechchyna, lower yakbes on the new one have fixed the pressure of future sanctions, vvazhaє vin.

It’s not the fall of the Turkish lira that comes to the ruble by itself. The main factor here is just the rhetoric of the United States like Turechchini, which gives a signal to investors before Washington and Russia can do better, even Denis Porivay, senior analyst from financial markets at Raiffeisenbank. Investors in the midst of the US policy against Turkey do not have a lot of doubts that the sanctions will not be only “cosmetic,” respect the analyst.

How does the ruble move away, analysts do not undertake to predict. The pressure on the ruble can be pinned down, if the market takes away the signal that the US Congress is not behind the biggest scenario of new anti-Russian sanctions against the Russian derzhborg and derzhbankiv, Sergiy Suverov is appointed. Navit akshcho sanktsiy expand less on OFZ, ruble, maybe, you can break through the sign of 70 krb. for the dollar, allow Denis Porivay, signifying that in the current situation, it is impossible to predict how the ruble will be weakened.

As follows from the macroeconomic situation and the balance of payments, the ruble is not to blame for so little change in the daily parameters, respecting Kirilo Tremasov, that, in his words, if the situation is a trifle out of the blue, the exchange rate can turn to the level of a sickle cob.

The announcement of the official document on the introduction of new sanctions against Skripal's right in the United States on Thursday did not waver anything. But for the market, it’s not important anymore - the ruble has survived the fall, and it’s not enough to cross the important psychological mark of 70 for the dollar. The Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance intervened at once, like a bliskavich chirping currency bacchanalia. Chi long time?

Although Washington has not yet published a document about the introduction of late anti-Russian sanctions against Skripal, the ruble did not help. At four dollars and euros, they exchanged again. The ruble was under the hour of trading on the back of a new minimum on the cob of rock, and then fell further. The dollar has moved 69 rubles by the dollar, which has become better since April 2016.

Indeed, the negative effect of new intermediate entries is already significant in the world's currency rate, according to Vitaliy Manzhos, senior risk manager of IC Algo Capital. Even the sanctions at the “right Skripals” began to be published in advance and were already published, so far unofficially.

“For the rest of the last two years, the Russian currency weakened the dollar by about 5 rubles or 8%. Such a move is approximately indicative of the scale of the weakening of the ruble, as if it followed the front package of sanctions on the side of the United States, which was announced on the cob of April 2018, ”explaining wine.

If the sanctions are really introduced, I can ruble, it’s possible, there won’t be any more where to fall. “Even often in the new Russian history mi bachili, as in fact, the implementation of sanctions is accompanied by the strengthening of the ruble. In my opinion, in-line quotation, shvidshe, є vіdobrazhennyam emotsіy. Prote can not turn off the speculative attack on the Russian currency in the style of "buy a little, sell facts." In fact, the introduction of sanctions as a whole can be accompanied by the Russian currency,” says FxPro financial analyst Oleksandr Kuptsikevich.

The reaction to lie down in the face of how painful it is to come in again, respect Manzhos. Even though a new package of significant world duplication was already adopted earlier than the exchange, the situation could be stabilized at the level of 70 rubles per dollar. In another turn, after the breakdown of the Russian currency, the Russian currency can take away a new incentive for weakening - already for the formation of panic moods, it seems, the analyst.

In fact, the ruble is already more squeezed not by sanctions from “Skrpipal's right”, but by the concern of the market about new delimitations, as they are only discussed in the US Congress. Talk about sanctions against new releases of the Russian government and the freezing of dollar assets of seven government banks.

Є y іnshі chinniki, yakі roar against the ruble. Zokrema, the Central Bank on handover to the Ministry of Finance on the cob of the day by increasing the purchase of foreign currency within the framework of the "budget rule". For the budget, that reserve is a weak ruble, and the road to naphtha is a real paradise. Ale lay the great buyer of currency in the name of the Central Bank more and more pidshtovhuє ruble down.

It would have been better if naphtha, which grows in price, is guilty of supporting the Russian currency. Ale, for such a negative geopolitical background, one can’t get into the “black gold”.

“Prices for naphtha are high, which is an undeniable positive for the Russian economy. At the same time, the need to overcome the budget rule paradoxically turns against the Russian ruble,” Manzhos says.

The sales of the ruble also increase the hostile dividends of Russian companies, which are paid for pіvrichchya pіvіchchya, zap Kuptsikevich.

“The negative background for the ruble was created by the same bad situation in other markets, which are developing, zocrema, Turechchini, and the gradual decline of the Chinese yuan to the dollar. However, at the same time, Turkey began to get accustomed to stabilization, and China voiced about the beginning of the policy of smooth exchange of the yuan," Nataliya Milchakova, the intercessor of the director of the Alpari analytical department, respects.

On Tuesday, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank stood up for the ruble, breaking the wind of the weakened speculators. The Bank of Russia announced that it will not buy currency for the Ministry of Finance from 23 September and at least until the end of September. The Ministry of Finance, in his turn, zapevniv, that the decision of the Central Bank is not in line with the plan of the buyers of currency within the framework of the budget rule.

“This decision was praised for the method of increasing the transferability of penny power and reducing the volatility of financial markets,” the regulator said.

Decisions about the renewal of the purchase of foreign currency will be taken from the improvement of the actual situation in the financial markets, as a poster of a protracted spring. Tobto moratorium on the purchase of currency can be sold for consumption.

Vlasne, the decision on the regulation of the CPU from the foreign exchange market allowed the ruble to lose less than a year from the dollar and the euro for the second ruble. Thus, the dollar fell to 68.24 rubles, the euro - to 78.87 rubles.

Vahovuyuchi macroeconomy fundamental officials of the Russian economy and to achieve a strange reaction of the Central Bank to the situation, the ruble can stabilize, respecting the leading economist of the Eurasian Bank of Development Yaroslav Lisovolik. As a whole, the situation may repeat itself, if after a sharp surge in the rate of wines, you calmly calm down.

“It’s the right decision to start buying foreign currency for the last three years,” says Lisovolik, RNS reports. - Tse allow at the current price of conjuncture on the oil market to increase carbovanets and streak that vice, which vin vydchuva by stretching a few remaining tizhnivs.

The Central Bank is also zapevniv, scho to see the situation and can have enough tools to protect the threats to the financial stability of the country. The main instrument, obviously, is the key rate. The Central Bank can raise the rate until the end of the year, so that we can increase the carbonization more for investors, not including Kuptsikevich. Oschadbank is considering a rate increase from 7.25% to 7% until the end of 2020, and then an incremental reduction - up to 7.25% until the end of 2019, and up to 7% at the end of 2020. Proceed with the presentation to the bank.

What are checks in Russian currency?

The head investment strategist of ITI Capital, Iskander Lutsko, checks until the end of the turn to the rate of 65 rubles per dollar - the zipper of the Bank of Russia's foreign exchange interventions. The ruble will be helped and large taxes paid, which will be cleared up on 27-28 days (PDPA, excise, VAT and a tax on income). According to the estimate of Lutsk, in the next few days, the market will have a proposition of foreign currency for 5.1 billion dollars, which will be close to 30% of the average three-day turnover.

And if the United States introduces an upcoming heavy package of sanctions, then the dollar can be charged more than 70 rubles.

“At the turn of 2015 and 2016, we were waiting for a trivial hour, and everything is equal, that from the technical point of view there are no serious shifts,” Manzhos adds.

Milchakov, you should be aware that the ruble may fall to 75 rubles per dollar, as sanctions against new issues of the Russian government and the freezing of dollar assets of seven government banks will still be introduced.

“However, the possibility that this law will be praised is still small. The postponement of this discussion at the Congress for the period after the election is confirmed,” Milchakova respects. According to the її forecast, the check will be 70 rubles per dollar until the end of the season, then the dollar may turn around and fall to 65-66 rubles per dollar, which will be positive news. “And in the fall of the leaves, it’s worth checking that the Congress is to be voted on, and the president of the United States is allowed to sign the law,” the analyst guessed.

Tetyana Evdokimova from Nordea Bank is shaking to the point that as a result of the sanctions, it will be helped to allow the Russian currency to turn to 66 rubles per dollar in the first April 2019.

“Fundamental indicators of the Russian economy (budget budget, gold and foreign exchange reserves, trade surplus, low borgo profitability) are being overrun by the best for most other countries with markets that are developing. All the same, you can turn Russia to the list of favorable directives for investors' deposits outside the United States, if the first emotional reactions pass, and macroeconomic statistics show how the Russian economy is adapting to a new round of sanctions," the expert says.

Ale, better for everything, 66 rubles per dollar - you will be the one new rіven, to which the Russians and the Russian economy will have to call and adapt.

“The potential for more significant appreciation of the Russian currency during the day, a small part of the sickle weakening of the ruble is due to the fierce pressure on the markets that are developing. With the improvement in the cycle of rate hikes that is happening in the US, this pressure is unlikely to be weaker in the coming months,” Evdokimova says.

© CC0 Public Domain

The fall of the Russian currency is three other days, for the whole hour the dollar exchange rate is 2.6 rubles, the euro exchange rate is three.

Investors lost out of the Russian economy after the announcement about. Washington announced on Wednesday evening that it would introduce new sanctions before the end of the sickness, having quarreled with the fact that Moscow was stoking a nerve-paralytic speech for the destruction of the great Russian underling agent Sergiy Skripal and his daughter at the Great Britain.

Intermediate visit divided into two "packages" The first one - easy - will be booked already 22 sick days. The power of the United States to close the export to Russia of "goods of undersigned recognition" (so that products, as you can win both in the civil and in the Russian industry) and financial operations. Deyakі z tsikh obmezhen deyut.

- RB of the brain (@belamova) September 9, 2018

And the axis is a thought of a person, as if they were talking on federal TV channels at political talk shows.

A lot of merezhevyh experts compare past and present shows and follow the line of economic behavior in new realities. It’s easy to relax, for those who don’t have such catastrophes to seriously worry about the increase in the exchange rate.

Serpneve aggravated currency crisis in Russia became an unacceptable surprise both for the country's citizens and for ordinary citizens.


The fall of the ruble: how is it possible to repeat the "black chest"?

“Dar’ya, on the spring everything was good — we have a ruble rіs. We all more or less calmed down. I raptom in the sickle showed an even more alarming trend. What do you think about karbovanets after the spring pidyoma? І what factors caused the sudden fall of lime on the cob of sickle?

— Serpen is a traditionally important month for the financial market, for the Russian currency. At the same time, the most severe reaction resulted in a decrease in oil prices. Brent naphtha tucked up the psychologically important mark of $50 per barrel and, of course, the ruble couldn't resist.

It is also a seasonality factor, if the sickle has traditionally weak data according to the balance of payments. The Central Bank will again lower the rate, and for the second time, the decision is to make the key rate 11 per cent, and inflation for the rest of the debt in the rіchnomu vіdsotkіv. In part, karbovanets continues to win and tsey chinnik.

But the main thing, obviously, is the price of naphtha, as a reaction to us in front of the Chinese problems - the block of weak indices, which reflect the situation in the economy: and an increase in industrial activity, problems with investments, and even a serious fall in stocks.

The order of the People's Republic of China, obviously, having accepted a bunch of calls, but, unfortunately, I do not want you to pay off the panic of a practically skin day, but we have a little problem. And such a problem in the Asian markets is always to put pressure on the syrovina.

Plus, the factor that lowered prices for naphtha from 110 comfortable for us, then from 60, then 50 is the reason for a strong shift in proposition over drinking on the naphtha market. Until then, sanctions will be imposed from Iran. Narazi wrote about those that Iran is going to file seriously and in the next hour to increase the supply.

Recently, we heard a statement from the Iranian authorities about those who are going to get it before 2016 to increase the amount of bottles for 500 thousand barrels per day. Tse rinok instantly be calmly cobbled, as if it were not common in China, as if they were destroying their black history.

- Dar'є, and the sanctions against Russia have already led to another plan for the fall of the ruble?

- A bunch of news about the implementation of sanctions, and then about the expansion of the sanctions market, they were louder and more serious about capital, and investors were unnerved. And then there is the sound factor, if everything that has become, in fact, is already included in the prices. A few days ago, the United States again expanded the low sanctions, and ignored the market.

May it be sensible to guess the words of Elvira Nabiullina, that we live at the same time in the new reality, and we need to adapt to it. Vaughn said that at that moment, if we switched to the free exchange rate, if the Central Bank actually saw the market. At the same time, we have a policy of targeting inflation and won’t work, and in part the weakening of the ruble is the only payment for this transition.

- What is inflation targeting policy?

— The policy of targeting inflation is based on the fact that the Central Bank should use its own tools to secure the same level of inflation. For the Central Bank, the value is 4 hundredths, which stench can reach us, because I don’t forget my memory, after 2 years. At the moment, this plan is to reduce from 15 to 4 thousand square meters, it looks like we can do it. Tobto zazanaetsya, scho for the exchange rate of the ruble, the Central Bank does not bear the responsibility. Really, we don’t call it that.

— Correlation between the ruble and inflation is all the same.

- Absolutely. First, won't, in a different way, the exchange rate of the ruble, the economy of storage, may be even more important to the social warehouse - in this change, a large number of people suffer.

The Central Bank, all the same, forfeiting its right to withdraw from non-interventions, as the situation on the foreign exchange market threatens the financial stability of the state. Tobto, in some emergency moment.

— And what kind of rhubarb threatens stability?

- The formula of the stink cannot be deciphered. Moreover, to roar the whole whole thing, so that, behind their words, make it easier for the speculators, as if at the right moment to start fighting against the ruble and calling out panicky moods. We all remember the end of 2014 that the beginning of that fate, if the situation was unsafe and nervous, that the Central Bank had a chance to raise the rate to 17 thousand rubles overnight.

At the same time, the stench is focused on inflation, in order to avoid the low growth rate, and the ruble exchange rate will be in the current economic situation.

Oskіlki Russia - the country, vbudovana in market economy, then, given the exchange rate of the ruble in the free swimming, we understand that the ruble is reguva- tive on all occasions that are expected. Like problems in China, but problems with naphtha, and, obviously, we have problems with the ruble. At the same time, the main intrigue of the world financial market is the rate of the US Federal Reserve, and naturally carbovanets on it reguvatime.

— How close is the correlation between quotation of oil and the ruble exchange rate? Let's say, naphtha falls, then how often does the ruble fall?

— If there are no more signs of light in the light arena, the correlation is practically approaching 100%. As naphtha goes down, the ruble quote goes down after it. If you put two graphs in one field (oil and ruble exchange rates), we care that the stench is avoided.

Insha Rozmova, if on the light arena there are like spirits. For example, if there were problems in Ukraine, the currency market reacted strangely to the price. The first time the correlation broke down from 100 to 80.

I know, after all, that he is the official of the policy of the Central Bank, who in the rest of the republic is engaged in more subtle tweaks. If sanctions were imposed, and Russia actually appeared to be crippled by foreign funding, the Central Bank had a chance to push its resources to financial organizations, and to the entire industrial sector. And also the need for work through repo mechanisms, through the mechanisms of project financing.

Ale, the ruble reacts to the monetary policy with a fringe. Mi bachimo took 2-3 days to grow, sometimes more, as it turned out to be those that the market did not take into account. Ale, having seen the news, the wines turn to the point where they marvel at the naphtha and react to the situation with the naphtha.

- What is our country of gold and foreign exchange reserves, our airbag?

— The amount of international reserves is estimated at three times more than 350 billion dollars, and it costs a significant figure. And not long ago, the Central Bank announced about those who will last 2-4 years, fallow in conjuncture, the stench will grow. We already bachili, that the Central Bank of the Central Bank zdіysnyuvav zdіysnyuvav rіvnomіrіnі purvіvlі currency і at that moment, if it was handy. Dekіlka days ago, before the slander about the rate, qі purchases were pripinenі.

If the pillows are blatantly obvious, then we need them at once. It’s such a thought, what a support to the course - it’s throwing pennies into the wind. We don’t call it that, the rocks for the economy are not so unsafe high and low exchange rate, and the price of yogo haircuts - in such a situation, it is important for companies to plan their business and investment activity.

- How can you predict the stage of zlotu-fall of the ruble? What will be with him in autumn and winter?

- In a situation, if such a high instability and tension, it is important to predict for a tribal period. Є singing fiducial points. For example, on spring-breast fall big payments for the foreign borg, if you need to buy currency.

- Chi bude away lowering the ruble exchange rate?

- Weakened, impeccably, be. But all the same, we can look around at those skils at the same time, you will be cutting naphtha. All the same, in the first place we will fill up our syrovina and in another even more. Vletku clerk of the tax period, which supports the ruble exchange rate. Vletka market is thin. So the activity is lower. Obviously, the factor of the tax period did not interrupt the factor of the drop in prices for naphtha.

I know, it's a Fed rate factor. The Federal Reserve System is essentially the director of the world financial system. Tse chi nі befits us, but її politics is pouring into the land of the country. The first decision of the Central Bank makes a decision about the implementation of its policy with an eye on the policy of the Fed. At once the situation in the American economy is such that you can smell the stench preparing rates pick up.

- Why do you want to stink the dollar?

- So. At the same time, the stench can praise the decisions about those, at which moment the stench will move the stench backwards, so the main rates. The dollar is at the trival phase of the change and it provokes it away from the change. And the main intrigue is, if it’s in the air, it’s going to be done. 16-17 Spring at the meetings of the Fed open to critical markets divided into two parts.

- How do you try to take away the dollar exchange rate for the American economy?

- Too expensive dollar in principle, unsafe for whatever economy, if export can be, it’s not worth it for them short version. On the other hand, the increase in the value of the currency brought to the increase in the profitability of all denominations in dollars of assets and a great investment income. I’ll see what’s good for them. Keep a balance: if the currency is too weak, it’s not safe, if the currency is weak, it’s not safe.

And yet, the significant dollar exchange has been brought to the point of major processes in all other lands, and in the first place, the lands that are developing are suffering. And here, unfortunately, Russia can also spend some distribution, shards of karbovanets respond to this situation.

- Mi export country.

- Abo stinks to crush it at the spring, or at the breast meeting, or they can transfer it to the cob of offensive rock. My thought is that the stink of the faith should not be bothered by tse robiti, yet it’s a risky factor - Greece did not get into trouble, and in China it’s still unreasonable, what’s going on. We know about those that the Fed takes its decisions without looking back at the decision of the world.

— And how can the Federal Reserve System and the American government praise the decision to change the dollar in a way that will worsen the situation in one particular country?

- On the right, in the fact that specifically one does not see, but sees more richly. I think that in this situation the stink of victorists can be used as other methods.

- Why is this a global tool?

- So. For them, the priorities are now high, and the decision on which rates are taken depends on two main parameters: the situation on the market, as the last hour showed to achieve strong results and that inflation. Axis z іnfljatsiєyu they have, as it is practical in all the different lands, while the situation is rather foldable. The indicator of inflation is still too low and is not up to the mark of the general indicators of the stench.

And again, the dollar and naphtha are on the market to find a return - if the dollar rises, then the naphtha falls.

— Dar'e, what does it mean for the naphtha prices to fall, so that the seroline models of the economy will slowly go by in the past?

— I think that the simple model of the economy itself carries risks in itself, but unequivocally speak about those that have lived for themselves and need to change the terms, obviously, not. Talk about those who have a naphtha head - it’s a stingy gasp, singsongly, until it’s varto, the whole world’s economy works on oil and gas.

So far, all projects from alternative energy occupy an insignificant part of the budget. Russia is a post-employee, and I’m sure that it’s unlikely that the next ten years will change, this model is practical.

- The SRSR barked all the time for those who are developing the defense complex. But is it really all good?

- Such wisdom: "if you don't want to honor your own army, you favor someone else's." In the rest of the second or two years, the situation on the outer fronts became more acute, and Russia is one of the poorest countries at the same time, as it can boast of the implementation of its policy, the very same, as we need it now.

- What is the purchase price of the ruble all at once? Vaughn died after the end of 2013?

- Obviously, a loss. Obviously, don’t talk about those who grow up with us and we feel even more miraculous. So, the population of the singing rank tse vіdchuvaє. Ale, I want to speak out, there are no other critical situations at once. So, the exchange rate of the ruble was asked for a little, so, the serpen ring out for an important month.

Ale, don’t talk about those who at the same time Russia is going through such a large-scale crisis, if it’s necessary to bathe buckwheat and dry crackers in a term. The first situation in 2008-2009 was very important. There, the growth of unemployment was even more serious. Nini mi for showing off such a thing is not bachim.

At the moment, according to the rumors of representatives of our ministry, the peak of the negative has already been passed, and it is visible behind the macro indicators. That is, if there is no serious worsening of the conjuncture, then the situation may be reversed in another pivrichch, and before the onset of fate we may stay at plus a reasonable economic growth in 1 to 3 vіdsotkіv. To that, I would have spoken more about the temporal chill, but not about the deep systemic crisis.

- For your pleasure, why are you so excited and excited, how do you behave in a crisis in order to spend less money?

- But the rule of gold alone, as, in my opinion, has not led anyone yet: if you have a lot of money, then it’s better to divide them into equal parts between the ruble, the dollar and the euro. And in such a rank, even if you didn’t go to the market, you won’t waste at least.

At the moment, buying the currency at the lowest rate, obviously, is not varto. To that, it’s worth protecting, then in that currency, for example, at once, then it’s better to get rid of it.

Well, just take a look at your life model. At the same time, there are no situations, if there is a strong stockpile, but there is no reason to think that there will be a large-scale crisis.

— Є forecasts of great companies that they are afraid to do it, that the dollar can go up to 70 rubles in the next hour. Ale chi tse, maybe an extreme option?

— Just to marvel at the technical point of view, then oil still has a couple of dollars, where it can go, here up to 47 dollars per barrel. Obviously, the ruble follows her. Ale potіm all the same situation may vir_vnyatis.

And I also chula predicted shanovnyh people, galuzeviks, as they said, that after 2-3 years they will turn again to 100. You can also compare, but, as practice shows, the market is unstable. Axis sleeping tomorrow at the Close Skhodі and the price of naphtha will hit the mountain, it’s really easy to directly and unambiguously predict. But there will be no disaster.

Foreign contributors are interested in Russia, more and more savage respect on the edge, deprivation of wealth, and there are no risks associated with sanctions.

The ruble is in a tricky position. On the rest of the day, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange rose again for 60 rubles (60.3475), and the euro broke through the sign of 71 rubles (71.0350) in 8 months.

Why is the ruble ignoring the rising price of naphtha and what are the new economic sanctions against Russia?

The rubel is an outsider among currencies

Insanely, the main driver for today is the growing tension in the waters between Russia and the USA.

According to the Bloomberg agency, the ruble has become an outsider among the currencies of the country with the economy that is developing. For the rest of five years, the price of naphtha increased by 18%. Against this background, the ruble won a total of 95 kopecks against the dollar, and the results for the euro parity turned out to be richly summed - the European currency added 3.4 rubles to its value.

The price of naphtha cannot be affected by negative sanctions

The price of naphtha, as before, is close to 60% of foreign exchange rates to Russia. Zzvichay, the ruble exchange rate reacts strangely to the dynamics of quotation of oil. The introduction of new US economic sanctions against Russia has reduced the correlation coefficient between the ruble and naphtha to the minimum.

Today, the growing naphtha is, sooner, a factor that drives the fall of the Russian currency. At the thought of rich financial analysts, as if from the current situation, tidy up the injection of foreign sanctions, then for such a price on naphtha, the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar could be buffed by 2-3 more rubles.

What is more important in the new sanctions

Following the statements of US Vice President Michael Pence, Trump is signing a law on sanctions in the next hour, and, at the time you read this article, it may be possible. All hopes for a weakened border are crumbling, as if they were a strong driver for the ruble under the hour of victory in the presidential election of Donald Trump. Before the speech, our analysts often called out not to give in to a rush of euphoria, but in the history of the United States there was no such thing as a good mood, if the president could say a moment to get cold without favor to Congress.

A new package of economic sanctions in short term, in the form of foreign currency loans to sovereign banks and sir companies, and also gives the US President an incentive to instigate foreign exchange financing of all pipeline projects of the Gazprom company.

Naivagomychim іz uhogo package of sanctions against Russia є entrusted to the US Treasury to oppose the fence on investment from the Russian derzhborg. Tsya podia will require an additional review.

Russia without foreign investors

For 1.5 years, non-residents, for tribute to the Bank of Russia, bought for 13.5 billion dollars, securing the market with currency for minds, if naphthodolars became a deficit. According to the estimates of analysts, the increase will drink on the ruble, adjusting the dollar exchange rate by about 10 rubles lower, lower in a moment, buti. For now, the Russian market will have to turn to harsh reality.

The first intercessor of the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Kseniya Yudaeva, said that the share of non-residents in the OFZ decreased by 0.7%, while signifying that this part of the dosі becomes a significant figure - close to 30%. Prote vodtik kapital prodovzhivsya and in linden. As the representatives of the European investment funds said, a lot of Russian assets in the lipny increased their sale.

We are looking forward to investors in the face of sanctions risks. Foreign contributors are interested in Russia, more and more ferocious respect on the edge, deprivation of wealth, and there are no risks associated with sanctions. For example, tse Brazil chi Turechchina. A part of foreign investors has been decided to do it categorically. Vrakhovuyuchi zaprovadzhennya chergovykh ekonomіchnykh sanktsiy, stink not bacheling the annual guarantees that the situation will not repeat itself in the future, that again I will include Russia in their investment strategies.

Over the period of 12 months, the share of non-residents in Russian OFZs fell from the current 30% to 25% for the analysis of analysts. Tse means only one thing - new pennies within the framework of the Kerry-trade strategy will not come all at once. Learn more - non-residents will sell OFZs for a total of about 100 billion rubles.

About the currency deficit in the local market

Nasamkinets varto indicates that since 1991, the ruble has grown more than 4 times, and for the remaining 10 years, more than once - in 2016. It is unlikely that in the first year of the year the check was repeated in 2016, so the war is prepared for the fall of the ruble exchange rate in the sickle.

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